All Things Digital

Apple (AAPL) needs to refresh the Mac line. That’s a key takeaway from today’s data from market research firm NPD on August Mac and iPod sales. In a note this afternoon, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster reports that the NPD data showed Mac sales growth in August was up 23 percent year-over-year in units, down from 43 percent growth in July. On a revenue basis, Macs were up 21 percent year-over-year. Earlier in the day, in a preview of the report, Munster had forecast that the NPD data would show 35 to 40 percent year-over-year unit growth for the month. Munster also notes that NPD’s iPod data show 19 percent unit growth in August, up from 12 perent in July, while revenues were up 27 percent.

The bottom line, Munster writes, is that “the directional trend” in the Mac data is weaker than expected, “likely due to Mac family in need of refresh.” He notes that the iPod data were “surprisingly strong,” but that “the Street may not give Apple credit” for the strong iPod number.

The other factor in the weak Mac sales, Munster theorizes, is that “the weak consumer environment is negatively affecting Apple’s business.”

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Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster writes this morning that Apple’s (AAPL) expansion today of the iPhone’s availability to 21 additional countries, nearly doubling the total, will lead to a 78 percent increase in addressable buyers, and that the resultant rise in iPhone unit sales is not being taken account of in Street estimates for Apple.

“Our iPhone estimate of 4.1 million units in the Sept. [fiscal third] quarter is likely conservative,” writes Munster. (Munster actually raised his estimate for this quarter to 4.47 million units last week. Not sure why he uses the old estimate in today’s note.)

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Such is the frenzy for information about potential new products from Apple (AAPL) that the blogosphere has begun to lose track of the rumors.

On Macrumors.com, a post this morning makes reference to a report purportedly put out today by Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson. The report, which supposedly details expectations of upgrades to Apple’s laptops and iPods that may materialize in September, sounds suspiciously like a report put out on Aug. 6 by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.

In fact, they are the same report! There were no new reports from either Munster or Olson today, as a quick phone call to Piper Jaffray’s media relations department revealed. Olson and Munster work together, sharing coverage of Apple, and the one report they filed on Aug. 6 is being confused as two separate reports a week apart.

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Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, perhaps the most bullish analyst on the Street on Apple (AAPL) shares–he maintains a Buy rating and $250 price target–wrote a detailed analysis today on what the true cost of the iPhone 3G will be for U.S. consumers. In short, while the retail price, at $199, is half the old price, other costs will make this version more expensive than the old over the life of the required two-year contract. And secondly, he estimates that the actual costs of the hardware will be a lot higher than the stated $199 price tag.

One issue, as Munster notes, is that the data plan for the first generation iPhone phone was $20 a month, including unlimited data and 200 text messages a month, on top of a voice plan. For the new phone, the data plan is $30 a month, and it will run you another $5 a month for 200 text messages. On that basis, the data-related fees over the course of two years will actually be $360 higher than before, or considerably more than the $200 cut in the hardware price.

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Apple (AAPL) shares are getting hit hard in today’s broad market selloff. While there are some minor news developments involving Apple–a lawsuit over the use of the phrase “Mighty Mouse,” a report that the company will use LED backlit displays in future laptops–there’s nothing obvious that would be pressuring the stock.

One item worth noting which I missed yesterday: Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster in an unusually cautious (for him) research note on Tuesday advised investors to keep their expectations for the capabilities of the 3G iPhone “in check.” He said the phone is likely to be nearly identical to the current iPhone in form and function.

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Turns out the iPhone shortage isn’t limited to New York Apple stores: Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster called 20 Apple stores nationwide today–and all of them were sold out of iPhones. In a note, Munster says the lead time for iPhones on Apple.com is still “5-7 days.” What does this mean?

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