Is Intel (INTC) stuffing the channel with chips? That’s the contention of analyst Douglas Freedman with American Technology Research in a note put out this morning. “Our checks suggest that Intel may be aggressively filling the channel and OEM inventory to mute the present demand cycle.” His thesis is that if Intel sticks distributors and PC makers with lots of its processors, both parties will be “incentivized” to sell more Intel parts to get rid of them. While Freedman is not raising his estimates, he thinks the result of channel stuffing is that Intel’s December and March quarters may not be as bad as he’s been thinking till now, while some sales and profit could be taken out of next fiscal year.

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On the list of things you might want to cut back on in a recession, you might start with diamonds.

Ergo, you can see why American Technology Research analyst Tim Boyd this morning warned that Blue Nile (NILE)–an online diamond retailer–could suffer a big miss in the fourth quarter. He writes that checks find jewelery retailers had a “horrid” October and November. He says his checks confirm the obvious: “folks aren’t buying a whole lot of jewelery these days.” He says retails stores have seen a huge drop in traffic, with “virtually zero interest at higher price points.” He says some couples may even be postponing engagement plans due to job insecurity and general economic uncertainty.

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Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu, who until last month worked at American Technology Research, has relaunched coverage of Apple (AAPL) with a Buy rating and a $120 price target.

Wu contends that there is still room for significant growth in both the Mac and iPhone businesses, where its market share is relatively small given the size of the PC and cellphone markets. “While continued difficult global macroeconomic headwinds and their impact on technology and consumer spending concern us, we believe the Apple adoption story is still intact and believe the company is positioned to weather the storm better than most,” he writes.

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Amazon (AMZN) shares continue to retreat amid a flurry of Street estimate and price target reductions.

Tim Boyd, American Technology Research: Boyd, who has a Sell rating on the stock, today cut his price target to $45 from $60. He says that a guide down for the Q4 is a “virtual certainty” given the 11 percent rally in the dollar since the company last reported. “Unless organic demand has improved during Q3,” which is hard to imagine, he expects guidance to come down. Boyd notes that the consumer is under tremendous pressure, and writes refreshingly, “you don’t need us to tell you what’s going on out there.”

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Apple (AAPL) shares are down sharply today after American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu cut his estimates on the company for both this year and next year. Wu cut his forecast for the September 2008 fiscal year to $5.29 from $5.34; for FY 2009 he goes to $6.15, from $6.35.

“While we continue to see fairly favorable unit trends in the September quarter with back-to-school, our supply chain checks indicate low visibility in the December and March quarters, which we believe will likely impact build plans,” he writes. Wu also says that he is “choosing to err on the conservative side given tough macroeconomic conditions.”

Wu also says supply chain checks find a mix shift toward low-end and mid-range Macs “as it appears that more affluent consumers may be feeling the effects of a tighter credit environment.” He says that MacBook Air sales and build plans “appear more modest after more robust levels.”

Wu maintains his Buy rating and $205 price target.

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