On the list of things you might want to cut back on in a recession, you might start with diamonds.

Ergo, you can see why American Technology Research analyst Tim Boyd this morning warned that Blue Nile (NILE)–an online diamond retailer–could suffer a big miss in the fourth quarter. He writes that checks find jewelery retailers had a “horrid” October and November. He says his checks confirm the obvious: “folks aren’t buying a whole lot of jewelery these days.” He says retails stores have seen a huge drop in traffic, with “virtually zero interest at higher price points.” He says some couples may even be postponing engagement plans due to job insecurity and general economic uncertainty.

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Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney this morning cut his rating on Amazon.com (AMZN) to Hold from Buy on a combination of valuation and macroeconomic concerns.

Mahaney notes that AMZN shares have surged “as much as 36 percent” since it reported Q3 results, “primarily due to growth rates that are surprisingly strong in a severe recession, but also due in part to increased enthusiasm for its Kindle product.” But he notes that consumer spending data points from other e-commerce companies, like recent cautious comments form Expedia and Blue Nile, have become consistently negative.

Mahaney did not change estimates, but sees increasing risk to the Street consensus. For Q4, he sees EPS of 40 cents, below the Street at 44 cents. For 2009, he sees $1.50, below the Street at $1.59.

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Blue Nile (NILE) shares are down sharply without any obvious provocation. No news, no big analyst calls, no SEC filings.

The one research item of note comes from Lehman’s Douglas Anmuth, in a survey of the outlook for Internet stocks generally. Not a lot of new ground, but he did note that “certain online retailers have begun to see a pronounced slowdown,” including Blue Nile, “which despite consistently strong execution and a large market opportunity…has been negatively impacted by reduced discretionary spending on high-ticket luxury items.”

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