After combing through Research in Motion’s Dec. 19 6-K filing, Avian Securities wireless analyst Matthew Thornton writes that the company’s prospects are still intact as it moves past its recent product delays in introducing new BlackBerrys.
Across the board, estimates for Research In Motion are coming down, with analysts citing factors such as a late launch for both the Bold and the Storm, increased competition from the iPhone, and weak consumer demand projected for calendar Q4. Overall, states UBS analyst Maynard Um, “We do not expect RIMM to be immune from the weakening economy.”
The “binary” outcome of RIM’s dilemma, according to research done by Citigroup’s Jim Sava, rests largely on whether or not Bold and Storm, the company’s widely anticipated new products, hit the market in time for the holidays. From there, in either case, the flowchart of scenarios and corresponding percentages–do consumers like the product? do profits go up?–become overwhelming. And of course, the company has recently changed its strategy and business model–it’s now a consumer company. Given that, it still boils down to Suva’s coin toss. Heads: earnings up; tails: earnings down.
Not that you’d notice it from yesterday’s stock action, but Citigroup analyst Jim Suva thinks BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion is setting itself up for a strong second half of the year with the introduction over the next several weeks of its 3G version of the BlackBerry, the “Bold.”
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