The rise of video streaming is dramatically affecting the Internet, according to a two-year study of Internet traffic trends that Arbor Networks recently presented to the North American Network Operators Group. Two years ago, Internet traffic was distributed evenly among a dozen Tier-1 network providers, but today the majority of traffic flows through direct peering agreements among large content providers, content delivery networks and ISPs.

Consequently, Tier-1 networks have shifted their business models from simple packet delivery to richer cloud computing and content hosting services, and new players Google (GOOG) and Comcast (CMCSA) have joined the top 10 list of Internet traffic producers–and the more traffic they put on the Internet, the more control it gives them over your online experience.

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Two seemingly unrelated announcements this week illustrate the intensifying pressure on cable TV’s business model. Comcast (CMCSA) announced this week that it would make more cable-TV programming available free through the Internet by the end of the year but only to people who get broadband and cable service from Comcast.

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Phishing attacks that affected customers of Microsoft’s (MSFT) Hotmail Monday have compromised more than 30,000 email accounts, including those of Gmail, Yahoo (YHOO) Mail and other services.

Microsoft blamed phishing, in which cybercriminals try to trick consumers into revealing personal information through fraudulent emails, for a list of Hotmail account passwords that appeared online. The company recommended Hotmail customers change their passwords and said it’s helping phishing victims fix compromised accounts.

But security firms and the BBC said Tuesday that the attack extended to other services, including those run by Google (GOOG) and Yahoo as well as AOL, EarthLink (ELNK) and Comcast (CMCSA).

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Collins Stewart analyst Thomas Eagan thinks you may be swapping your Comcast (CMCSA) shares for Time Warner Cable (TWC) sometime soon.

In a note to clients this morning, Eagan writes that investors may rotate out of Comcast if the company decides to invest $12 billion to $14 billion for a stake in GE’s (GE) NBC-Universal, as rumored. The latest buzz on that deal is that it has a 50/50 chance of happening, according to a piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning.

If Comcast were to take a 51 percent stake in NBC-U, Comcast’s revenue from content would jump from 4.5% of the firm’s total sales to 30 percent, writes Eagan.

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Business leaders clearly think the world is back to normal: A media company is weighing a deal of dubious logic. News that Comcast (CMCSA) is in talks to buy control of NBC Universal can only confirm cable investors’ worst fears about Comcast’s fixation on expanding in content. And while Comcast may succeed in getting control without paying a fortune, it isn’t clear what strategic value there is in linking its cable operations with NBC Universal. The deal said to be under discussion involves the cable company merging its array of lesser known cable channels with NBC Universal into a new company that would be roughly half owned by Comcast and half by NBCU’s parent General Electric (GE).

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Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) and General Electric Co. (GE) are discussing a plan that would merge Comcast’s cable networks with GE’s NBC Universal, according to a person familiar with the matter.

In the deal under consideration, Comcast would contribute assets and cash and receive 51 percent ownership of NBC Universal in a joint venture with GE, which would own the remainder, the person says. The deal would value the assets contributed by Comcast at about $6 billion. Comcast would also contribute between $4 billion and $6 billion in cash, the person said.

The deal is still far from finalized and could still fall apart, the person said.

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So, the latest theory seems to be that Comcast (CMCSA) is in talks to buy 20-50 percent of NBC Universal, the TV/movie studio/cable/theme park company owned 80 percent by General Electric (GE) and 20 percent by Vivendi.

As I noted in a post last night, the Web site TheWrap.com yesterday asserted that Comcast had inked a deal to buy NBC Universal for $35 billion; Comcast said that was wrong, but didn’t deny being in talks.

This morning, the AP is reporting that two people familiar with the negotiations confirm talks for Comcast to acquire up to half of NBCU, including Vivendi’s stake.

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TV Everywhere is a concept put out by TV distributors that basically says that if you pay for cable or satellite, you should be able to watch the content you want, where you want. Everywhere. To some people this is not a good idea.

As is always the case, many people think tv programming should be widely available for free on the internet. Of course the content is never free. Someone has to pay to create it and we purchasers of cable and satellite services pay the subscription fees that pay the content companies and allow them to create all that content.

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In a bold and controversial call, Citigroup (C) analyst Jason Bazinet this morning proposed a cable industry mega-deal: he thinks Comcast should buy Time Warner Cable (TWC). Until last week, that combination would have been impossible; but an FCC rule limiting cable companies to 30 percent U.S. market share has been struck down by a federal court.

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Will Comcast (CMSCA) use its rising cash pile to make a large acquisition in the content business?

Reuters raised that question in a lengthy news analysis yesterday which wondered if the company is plotting a giant deal along the lines of its failed $54 billion bid for Disney (DIS) in 2004. The story says speculation on the Street has the company potentially targeting Viacom (VIA), or even Time Warner (TWX). (A combination with Time Warner–which would give the company control of key cable properties like HBO and CNN – would be truly weird, given that Time Warner only months ago spun off Time Warner Cable as an independent company.)

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Frank Eliason is famous for trolling Twitter as @comcastcares to solve customer complaints.

At the Comcast (CMCSA) New Media Exchange conference in Philadelphia Wednesday, he doled out his top tips for effective Twittering. “If you look at anything I’ve ever done, it’s really service 101, search 101,” he said.

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Comcast (CMCSA) shares are on the rise this morning after the U.S.’s largest cable operator beat expectations for EPS on in-line revenue for its Q2. The company managed to beat analysts’ free cash flow projections as capital expenditures continued to decline despite the rollout of several interesting initiatives including wireless services and online video streaming.

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Comcast (CMCS) is now on the iPhone bandwagon. On Thursday, Comcast, the largest cable operator in the U.S. by subscribers, announced a free application for the Apple (AAPL) device that lets customers check their Comcast email and home voice mail as well as surf their TV schedules.

Still to come: the ability to program DVRs at home from mobile devices, the way that rivals like DirecTV (DTV), Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) do.

But the application has gotten largely positive reviews in the blogosphere. Gizmodo calls it a “surprisingly nice little app,” while MobileCrunch says it’s “a good, solid offering that’s a no-brainer for iPhone owners who subscribe to and use Comcast’s voice, internet, and cable services.”

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For people who hope the openness and flexibility of the Internet will come to mainstream television, the deal announced yesterday between Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner (TWX) is great news. They just don’t see yet how it blows apart the tight bond between cable content and cable delivery.

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If you’ve read anything about how companies are harnessing Twitter, chances are Frank Eliason, under the name “comcastcares,” has been mentioned.

He calls himself as “a simple customer-service guy” (not unlike Craigslist founder Craig Newmark, who goes by “customer-service representative”) and said at yesterday’s Federated Media conference that his team fields several hundred tweets a day. He receives about 200 private messages a day through the microblogging service, a mix of customer-service issues, spam and feedback on other Comcast Twitterers.

Mr. Eliason has only been with Comcast (CMCSA) for a year and a half, originally managing a small customer-service group at the cable provider’s Philadelphia headquarters. His team tiptoed into social media by contacting bloggers (by phone) who complained about service problems, but watched Twitter for about two months before doing outreach there.

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