The buying and selling of virtual goods is an extremely nascent market that seems to be heating up dramatically. Almost daily there are announcements pronouncing large virtual good revenues on the horizon and new forms of payments and rewards for the intrepid user.

Just today social network Hi5 introduced multicultural holiday gifts along with a new payment system. Virtual world Habbo also introduced a new type of currency and reward program for loyal users.

With all of this interest and efforts toward monetization, is this a bubble waiting to burst?

So far, my answer is no.

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Friedman Billings Ramsey’s David Hilal this morning became the latest analyst to cut estimates on Oracle (ORCL) ahead of the software giant’s earnings report for the November quarter, which will be announced after the close on Dec. 18.

Oracle’s forecast for the quarter was for revenue to be up 9-12 percent, or 12-15 percent on a constant currency basis; it projected new license growth of 2-12 percent, or 5-15 percent on a constant currency basis.

Hilal thinks the company will be at the low end of guidance on a constant currency basis, and could miss on an as-reported basis.

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The other day a message popped up on Twitter. Jay Rosen, who teaches journalism at New York University, asked–in all seriousness, and innocence–”I know I sound clueless and that’s never pleasant, but…what in tarnation does ‘rickrolled’ mean?”

Oh, the temptation to reply with a classic of the genre. “Go on!” urged friends. “You have to! Never get a better chance!” Oh, the temptation to reply “There’s a really great example here” and append a link to–well, you know where. But I didn’t. (Don’t know what rickrolling is? Read up.) The reasons why are embedded in understanding the new currency that we deal in–certainly in the information industries, and especially journalism.

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Yes, it sure is nice to see stock prices flashing green. But despite the market’s historic two-day move, there are still reasons to worry about what happens to technology shares over the next several quarters.

There are several negative factors at work here. Start with currency: One of the more eye-opening aspects of Oracle’s (ORCL) well-received earnings report last night was the company’s comment that revenues in its fiscal third quarter ending October will see a serious drag from currency factors. Oracle expects a 10 percentage point swing on a year-over-year basis: Currency boosted revenue by 7 points in the year-ago quarter, but will cut revenue growth by 3 percentage points this year, assuming exchange rates stay about where they are now.

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Google’s (GOOG) third-quarter results will feel the effects of a strengthening dollar, Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal observed in a research note this morning. Aggarwal points out that currency has lifted earnings in each of the last 10 quarters, but that the company will suffer a sequential FX loss in Q3, with the year-over-year benefit “materially lower” than in recent quarters.

Aggarwal says trend reversal in FX “will put $22 million” of “negative pressure on Google’s gross margin” on a sequential basis, and will provide only a $132 million boost on a year-over-year basis, versus $248 million in Q2 and $202 million in Q1.

Aggarwal, who maintains a Buy rating and $615 price target on the stock, says that the currency shift “is not a thesis changer, but a noteworthy trend reversal to watch for.”

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Expressing caution on the software sector heading into second-quarter earnings report, Goldman Sachs software analysts Sarah Friar, Sasa Zorovic, Derek Bingham and Frederick Grieb this morning chopped estimates on a host of software companies. They also cut their ratings on both Intuit (INTU) and Digital River (DRIV) to Sell from Neutral.

“A difficult U.S. macro environment and its slow spillover internationally create problems for the group,” the Goldman analysts wrote in an extensive software industry research note this morning. “These are seen in longer sales cycles, price discounting, and the need for multiple signatures for deal closings, and hence sales slippages. All this is somewhat offset by currency benefits, ongoing strength in emerging markets and trough valuations.” They also note that short interest in the group is at a three-year high and could provide some support for the shares.

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