With SunPower (SPWRA) set to report earnings on Thursday after the close, solar analysts have taken a fresh look at the company this morning–and at least three of them did not like what they saw. Analysts at Friedman Billings Ramsey, Thomas Weisel Partners and Pacific Crest all had words of warning this morning for investors in the stock, sharply reducing their forecasts for 2009. Here are the details:

Mehdi Hosseini, Friedman Billings: Hoseini repeated his Market Perform rating on the stock, but cut estimates; he slashes his 2009 view to $2.06 a share, from $3.02. For 2010, he goes to $3.05, from $3.40. Hosseini says the cuts reflect his view that 2009 will bring slower-than-expected demand in both Italy and the U.S. He also thinks ASPs will come under pressure, offsetting the impact of cost-cutting and pressuring gross margin. He also sees further trouble ahead in Spain, noting that some systems and modules have actually been shipped out of Spain and into other geographies. He notes that Spain accounted for 40 to 50 percent of SunPower’s 2008 revenues.

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Friedman Billings Ramsey’s David Hilal this morning became the latest analyst to cut estimates on Oracle (ORCL) ahead of the software giant’s earnings report for the November quarter, which will be announced after the close on Dec. 18.

Oracle’s forecast for the quarter was for revenue to be up 9-12 percent, or 12-15 percent on a constant currency basis; it projected new license growth of 2-12 percent, or 5-15 percent on a constant currency basis.

Hilal thinks the company will be at the low end of guidance on a constant currency basis, and could miss on an as-reported basis.

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Semiconductor companies are planning sharp production cuts for both Q4 2008 and Q1 2009, according to a report today by Craig Berger, chip analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey. He says that PC chip firms are seeing “significant production weakness,” as are communications IC producers–and that semiconductor companies are adjusting their own output accordingly.

Here’s a rundown on Berger’s outlook for production in the next few quarters from key chip companies; what he’s measuring here are wafer starts, or a little more roughly, units:

• Broadcom (BRCM): He sees production down 13 percent in Q4 from Q3, worse than his previous estimate of down eight percent; for Q1 he sees a further 17 percent cut.
• Marvell (MRVL): For Q4, down 18 percent, versus previous estimate of down 13 percent. For Q1, down another 10 percent.
• Texas Instruments (TXN): For Q4, production down 18 percent, no change; with Q1 down another 20 percent.

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The big warning from JA Solar (JASO) this morning has triggered another day of big losses for solar stocks–and provided clear evidence of an industry in deep trouble.

Several analysts have followed up the news with comments on what the news means for the state of the industry; here are a few key takeaways:

Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst with Friedman Billings Ramsey, asserted that he expects other solar companies reporting over the next few weeks to similarly miss forward earnings expectations. Hosseini notes that JASO on its post-earnings conference call characterized the current industry dynamic as “complete panic.” He reports that the company sees selling prices in 2009 down at least 20 percent, while margins are coming down even faster than that. Hosseini notes that the company is trying to renegotiate its poly supply contracts to lower pricing. He also points out that JASO has shut 40 percent of its production lines for now.

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Heath Terry, the new Internet analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, has launched coverage of the sector this morning, setting Outperform ratings on Google (GOOG), eBay (EBAY) and ComScore (SCOR), while starting Bankrate (RATE) with a Market Perform rating, and setting Yahoo’s (YHOO) rating at Underperform.

“We believe that the sector offers strong fundamental growth, reasonable valuation, and considerable potential outperformance,” Terry writes. “As consumers continue to shift more of their time and spending online, advertisers are following. Although this trend has been going on for years, we believe that in the current economic environment, new business models and technologies, as well as advertisers’ success in the medium, are likely to accelerate this shift of ad dollars online.”

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