The solar technology industry may report a stronger-than-expected third quarter but could face disappointment in subsequent quarters, warns Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon Johnson in a note to clients today. Johnson says that his checks suggest demand for photovoltaic modules in Germany has been better than expected, raising the prospect that solar tech makers could demonstrate better sales growth and margins than expiated when they report the September quarter.

The longer term quality of the industry’s growth may be questionable, however. When growth slows for industries, notes Johnson, the participants often resort to what he calls financial chicanery to hide the slowdown, and that’s what he expects from solar tech companies.

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Its 17 declarations on the future of journalism in the age of the internet have been discussed worldwide.

As soon as it came out, it was spread all over the net: 15 German journalists and bloggers wrote an “Internet Manifesto” on how journalism works today. Shortly after it was announced online, their server went offline. The reaction was overwhelming.

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It was a strange quarter for solar panel maker First Solar (FSLR) last night. The company reiterated its forecast for 2009 revenue, which was probably expected, but it also beat Q2 revenue, leaving some disappointed with the lack of upside for the rest of the year. Moreover, the big issue on the call, the decision by the company to offer rebates in Germany is paradoxical given that it was $84 million in revenue from Germany, analysts say, that helped the company beat Q2 expectations. Do the rebates signal a continuing threat of price erosion and stalled customers as First Solar competitors cut their prices?

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Shares of solar panel technology maker First Solar (FSLR) are reversing course this evening, falling to $170 after briefly going as high as $189 following a clean Q2 beat. What’s spooked people are the company’s remarks on a conference call this evening about growing uncertainty in its German market.

The company has seen increasing price-cuts among competitors selling into Germany’s solar power market. Although First Solar makes panels from a thin-film semiconductor technology, it started to see trouble in the German market from manufacturers hit with a glut of polysilicon-based product and slowing of new panel projects, said CEO Mike Ahern.

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It’s a nice day for the solar sector, which is getting a boost from a flurry of analyst comments following the recently completed Intersolar trade show in Munich.

“By the end of Intersolar, we sensed growing, albeit cautious optimism,” Cowen’s Robert Stone writes in a research note this morning. “ASPs are still uncertain, but volumes should definitely be up in Q2/Q3, and deals were starting to close.” He says that despite a strong rebound in the stocks since early March, the group “remains mostly undervalued.”

Likewise, Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Jeff Osborne writes that “it appears demand trends in Europe are accelerating with many companies indicating a 40-100 percent increase in units in Q2 sequentially, led mainly by Germany with some credit easing in Mediterranean countries as well.”

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Alone in a room in his home in Bonn, Germany, Friedhelm Hillebrand sat at his typewriter, tapping out random sentences and questions on a sheet of paper.

As he went along, Hillebrand counted the number of letters, numbers, punctuation marks and spaces on the page.

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Cowen analyst Robert Stone this morning cut estimates for the solar sector across the board, asserting that Street estimates for at least the first half of 2009 are too high, and there could be further downside if project credit conditions do not improve.

“Street estimates generally have Q1 revenue flat-to-up sequentially, but we see a downtick as more likely,” he writes. “The main sticking point appears to be project financing rather than the price of modules. Smaller systems are more likely to find cash buyers or owner equity financing along with renewable-specific loans in markets such as Germany and Japan. However, larger projects are likely to be hampered by tight credit and lack of third-party tax equity.”

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OK, so here is the weirdest story of the day. SolarWorld, one of the largest solar companies in Germany, today declared that they want to buy several sites in Germany that now belong to the Opel division of General Motors (GM). In short, they want to expand from solar modules into the auto business.

As noted in an AP story picked up by the Wall Street Journal, SolarWorld said it intends to offer one billion Euros, including 250 million in cash and 750 million in credit lines, for four German production facilities and Opel’s development center and headquarters in Ruesselsheim.

The goal: to create Europe’s first true “green” auto company, with a focus on building electric and hybrid cars.

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Solar stocks are trading sharply lower this morning after Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Molnar declared he has become cautious on the solar group “as less generous subsidies combined with a wave of supply pose a real risk.”

Molnar asserts in a research note that the risk of oversupply in the solar market “will soon become a reality as considerably less generous demand subsidies take hold just as a wave of supply and tight financing hit the market.” He thinks that “liberal subsidies of the past in markets like Germany and Spain are unlikely to be replicated in the future given fears of their ultimate cost in a bad world economy.”

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Sunshine is free. Solar modules are not. But they are getting cheaper: UBS analyst Stephen Chin today revised his forecast for solar module pricing to down 20 percent from a previous estimate of down 14 percent. Chin says the recent move by the government in Spain to cap its solar subsidy program will move solar module volumes to other markets, including Germany and Japan, where lower pricing is required to generate favorable returns for solar system buyers. The revised Spanish solar subsidy program will cut installations in Spain to 300MW next year, from an estimated 1.2GW this year.

Chin today cut EPS estimates by about 10 percent for 13 global solar companies, including SunPower (SPWR), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), LDK (LDK), Suntech (STP), Yingli (YGE), Q-Cells, Solarworld, REC, Conergy, Solon, Motech, E-Ton and Sino-American Silicon. He also cut his rating on SunPower to Neutral from Buy, while increasing his rating on Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) to Buy from Neutral.

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