Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney this morning cut his rating on Amazon.com (AMZN) to Hold from Buy on a combination of valuation and macroeconomic concerns.

Mahaney notes that AMZN shares have surged “as much as 36 percent” since it reported Q3 results, “primarily due to growth rates that are surprisingly strong in a severe recession, but also due in part to increased enthusiasm for its Kindle product.” But he notes that consumer spending data points from other e-commerce companies, like recent cautious comments form Expedia and Blue Nile, have become consistently negative.

Mahaney did not change estimates, but sees increasing risk to the Street consensus. For Q4, he sees EPS of 40 cents, below the Street at 44 cents. For 2009, he sees $1.50, below the Street at $1.59.

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There was a certain irony Monday when Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney jacked up his sales forecast for the Kindle, the electronic book reader developed by Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Ironic because in Silicon Valley–the capital of early-technology adopters and the bleeding-edge users of all things geek–actual sightings of the device are quite rare.

Most of the digerati around here are still obsessed with Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) latest 3G iPhone, which still draws lines wrapping around the block. By contrast, the Kindle is so scarcely spotted that whenever tech analyst Rob Enderele uses his, little crowds tend to gather around him.

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Amazon.com (AMZN) shares are sharply higher today, aided by a bullish note this morning from Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney focused on the company’s Kindle e-book reader.

Mahaney today doubled his 2008 unit estimate on Kindle sales to 380,000 from 190,000. He notes that 380,000 is exactly how many iPods Apple (AAPL) sold in the first year. “Turns out the Kindle is becoming the iPod of the book world,” he writes.

Mahaney thinks the Kindle could turn out to be one of the top “gadget” gifts of this year’s holiday gift season. He thinks the company can sell 150,000 Kindles this holiday season.

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