Virtually all the predictions about the death of old media have assumed a comfortingly long time frame for the end of print–the moment when, amid a panoply of flashing lights, press conferences, and elegiac reminiscences, the newspaper presses stop rolling and news goes entirely digital. Most of these scenarios assume a gradual crossing-over, almost like the migration of dunes, as behaviors change, paradigms shift, and the digital future heaves fully into view. The thinking goes that the existing brands–The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal–will be the ones making that transition, challenged but still dominant as sources of original reporting.

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So, has New Media changed the way we select our presidential nominees? Has it fulfilled its promise to reduce the ability of the mainstream media and the political establishment to pick our candidates for us? It might not seem so. After all, the three remaining possibilities are all U.S. senators perennially embraced by Old Media. Moreover, mainstream media has been mocking conservative talk-radio hosts and bloggers for their inability to defeat McCain. But, a look beneath the surface reveals that finally, during this election cycle, New Media has seized control of the nominating process, probably forever.

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