Oracle (ORCL) shares today have rallied impressively following last night’s better-than-expected results for its fiscal third quarter ended in February. The analysts who track the stock were generally impressed with the numbers; I would note that is the same crew that had been cutting expectations heading into the quarter. (Though even most of the estimate-cutters continued to recommend the stock.)

Guidance for the May quarter was below the consensus, although a few analysts asserted that they were likely in line with the “whisper” numbers expected by the buy side. Pacific Crest’s Brendan Barnicle points out that the Street seems to have been caught by surprise in terms of the strength of the company’s European business in the latest quarter; he notes that most analysts do their channel checks in North America, where business was slower.

Overall, the Street continues to view Oracle’s large installed base of maintenance-paying enterprise customers as a protective shield from the broader economic downturn; to many, Redwood Shores looks like a pretty good place to hide out from the storm.

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In a report combining consumer electronics, semiconductors, and infrastructure software analysis, Pacific Crest Securities equity researchers today write that Microsoft’s (MSFT) forthcoming Windows 7 is “a dramatic improvement over Vista” and that it has “implications for the technology sector” beyond just what it will do for Microsoft. The operating system, which is currently in beta and is rumored to be approaching production release much faster than usual for Microsoft’s OSes, “could be out by the end of June,” which would make the software a material contributor to Microsoft’s fiscal 2010 results, write the authors.

The Pacific Crest test labs have found that in putting the beta of Win 7 through its paces, “the increased speed and stability, relative to previous Windows iterations, are striking […] Everything seems to run faster and more smoothly […] the primary test laptop has not crashed since installation of Windows 7 two weeks ago.”

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With SunPower (SPWRA) set to report earnings on Thursday after the close, solar analysts have taken a fresh look at the company this morning–and at least three of them did not like what they saw. Analysts at Friedman Billings Ramsey, Thomas Weisel Partners and Pacific Crest all had words of warning this morning for investors in the stock, sharply reducing their forecasts for 2009. Here are the details:

Mehdi Hosseini, Friedman Billings: Hoseini repeated his Market Perform rating on the stock, but cut estimates; he slashes his 2009 view to $2.06 a share, from $3.02. For 2010, he goes to $3.05, from $3.40. Hosseini says the cuts reflect his view that 2009 will bring slower-than-expected demand in both Italy and the U.S. He also thinks ASPs will come under pressure, offsetting the impact of cost-cutting and pressuring gross margin. He also sees further trouble ahead in Spain, noting that some systems and modules have actually been shipped out of Spain and into other geographies. He notes that Spain accounted for 40 to 50 percent of SunPower’s 2008 revenues.

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The broad market is getting clobbered this morning in part by the extremely weak Commerce Department report on December retail sales–and investors are demonstrating particular zeal for dumping both Amazon.com (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY).

Commerce reported a 2.7 percent drop in retail sales in December, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. The report showed a 1.9 percent decline in sales at catalog and Internet retailers.

Pacific Crest analyst Steve Weinstein this morning said that Q4 e-commerce sales appear worse than expected. He estimates that sales were up one percent in October, then down more than three percent in November and more than four percent in December. He estimates total online sales in the quarter were down four percent, falling short of his previous forecast for flat growth.

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Omniture (OMTR) shares are down sharply today following cautious comments on the stock this morning by Pacific Crest analyst Chad Bartley.

Bartley writes that “feedback from the channel is markedly more negative” than it was two to three months ago. He says the poor economy is resulting in month-over-month slowing in the online business analytics sector; he says Q4 activity is weaker than expected in what is normally a seasonally strong period. “In general, existing customers are not expected to increase their investments in 2009,” he writes. Bartley also says new customer growth is slowing; he expects a drop of 30-50 percent in 2009 in new customer additions.

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Is BlackBerry demand souring?

Research In Motion (RIMM) is seeing “disappointing” sell through trends, according to Pacific Crest’s James Faucette.

“Our checks with carrier retail outlets across North America and with third-party retailers in Western Europe indicate that BlackBerry handset sell-through through the middle of October has been slightly disappointing,” he wrote in a research note this morning.

He asserts that early sales of the Pearl Flip are “tepid at best,” with “particularly disappointing” demand at T-Mobile. “We believe that some of the stores had only sold one or two, despite the product having been on sale for a couple of days,” he writes.

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The Indian IT outsourcing companies are going to see a hit to earnings from the sagging global economy, Pacific Crest’s Kanchana Vydianathan asserted this morning. While still generally bullish on the sector, she cut estimates this morning for Satyam (SAY), Wipro (WIT), Patni (PTI), Infosys (INFY), Tata Consultancy and Cognizant (CTSH).

Vydianathan offered six factors affecting her revised view of the sector:

• “Uncertainty” in the banking and financial services industry.
• Potential slowdown in Europe and in other industries.
• Poor visibility for demand.

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Pacific Crest’s Weston Twigg trimmed his EPS estimates this morning for a number of semiconductor equipment companies, asserting that a recovery in demand is likely to take longer than previously expected.

“Given the lingering imbalance between memory chip supply and demand, we expect new fab projects to continue to be delayed or to ramp slower than originally planned in 2009,” he wrote in a research note. “We believe spending will be relatively flat over the next three quarters, and we do not expect meaningful growth in spending until late 2009 or early 2010.”

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U.S. and European handset demand was “lackluster” in August, creating pressure on pricing, Pacific Crest’s James Faucette asserted in a research note this morning.

Faucette says says handset sell-through is up sequentially from July, but below expectations for the beginning of the back-to-school season. He adds that “price pressures on handsets continue to mount.” He notes that the mix of Apple (AAPL) iPhone 3G sales during August has shifted “decidedly” toward the $199, 8GB model. He says that will increase the difficulty of selling other smartphones “in the usual $250 to $300 range.”

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Pacific Crest analyst Andy Hargreaves released a note this morning with a bunch of data points showing the rising importance of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone in Internet usage. And he implies that the current value of the shares could be closer to $184 than the current $176.15 at which the stock trades.

Hargreaves writes that based on data from privately held Internet measurement firm Net Applications, of Viejo, Calif., the Safari Web browser shipped on the iPhone accounts for .3 percent of all world-wide Web surfing in August so far, double its share in June, prior to the introduction of the iPhone 3G. “iPhone’s rapid share gains in Internet usage suggest potential upside to current estimates,” writes Hargreaves, “and are a strong indicator of what we believe are lasting competitive advantages.” He goes on: “As Web-based software and services become more ingrained in our every-day working and personal lives, Apple’s emerging advantage in the mobile Internet will, in our view, become increasingly valuable.”

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Akeena Solar (AKNS) is having “quality issues” with some of its Andalay brand solar modules, according to Pacific Crest analyst Mark Bachman.

“Our contacts revealed that some panels are being returned to Akeena, depending on the severity of the defect,” he wrote in a research note this morning. The issue he says, involved the frame, and not the performance of the modules themselves. “Akeena touts the aesthetically pleasing nature [of its Andalay line] as a key contributor to charging a premium price,” he writes. “Poor manufacturing quality affecting the looks, coupled with reports from our contacts that the module has been returned, suggest to us that either price breaks were negotiated on the modules kept in the field, or Akeena will suffer increased costs to rectify the situation.”

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Activision Blizzard (ATVID) shares are trading lower following the company’s fairly complex June quarter report and 2008 outlook. Complicating the picture is the logistics of the merger of Activision and Blizzard. The company posted stand-alone results for Activision for the quarter, but gave guidance for the combined companies. Meanwhile, the company indicated there would be some GAAP price to pay as it changes its revenue recognition policy for games with a significant online component; it will recognize both revenue and costs for some games over a six-month period rather than upfront. And it also said that it now thinks its calendar 2008 results will exceeds its previous guidance for calendar 2009.

What to make of all of that? Pacific Crest’s Evan Wilson wrote that it was a “confusing but positive” outlook.

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Pacific Crest’s Andy Hargreaves this morning raised his price target on Apple (AAPL) to $235 from $225, and upped his EPS estimate for the September 2009 fiscal year to $6.55 from $6.20. The moves reflect his bullish views on the prospects for the iPhone.

Hargreaves contends the new business model for the phone improves near-term cash flow, but does change the overall profitability of the device. He says the initial subsidy–which he puts at $350 per unit, higher than the $325 estimate calculated by Oppenheimer’s Yair Reiner–will roughly offset the net present value of monthly payments the company received from AT&T under the model used for the first version of the phone.

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Well, imagine that: the economy really does have an impact on the growth of online advertising.

In a research note this morning, Pacific Crest analyst Steve Weinstein reports that Q2 online advertising is likely to grow in “the high teens” versus a year earlier, down from Q1 growth just under 20% and Q4 growth of 23%, “indicating a modest but steady deceleration.”

Weinstein says the weak economy has lead to a tightening of overall ad budgets. While that is driving some advertisers to spend a larger slice of their budget on the Web, taking share from television in particular, he finds that “online advertising would be growing faster in a more robust economy and ad market.”

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At the Apple (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference coming up next week, CEO Steve Jobs is widely expected to unveil a new 3G version of the iPhone. Meanwhile, in the last few weeks, a number of carriers have announced deals to sell the phone, which will make it available in dozens of countries. Every time there’s another announcement, the Street issues higher estimates of the total addressable market for the device.

Pacific Crest’s Andy Hargreaves today asserts that the numbers have gotten out of hand. He points out in a research report this morning that the carriers that have announced deals with Apple have total subscribers of 669 million people, an increase of 520 million in the last month. That’s impressive: global handset sales are expected to be 1.27 billion this year, growing to 1.37 billion next year.

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