The Web has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to evolve and leave embedded franchises struggling or in the dirt. Prodigy, AOL were early candidates. Today Yahoo (YHOO) and eBay (EBAY) are struggling, and I think Google (GOOG) is tipping down the same path. This cycle of creative destruction–more recently framed as the innovators dilemma–is both fascinating and hugely dislocating for businesses. To see this immense franchises melt before your very eyes–is hard to say the least.

I saw it up close at AOL. I remember back in 2000, just after the new organizational structure for AOL / Time Warner (TWX) was announced there was a three-day HBS training program for 80 or so of us at AOL. I loathe these HR programs–but this one was amazing. I remember Kotter as great (fascinating set of videos on leadership, wish I had them recorded), Colin Powell was amazing and then on the second morning Clay Christensen spoke to the group.

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As Facebook enjoys its moment in the sun, we should take a moment to step back and look at the history of computers and social communication. Some historical perspective is in order, both to assess the real value of social networks as businesses and to anticipate how they are likely to evolve in the future. I’ve been using the Internet since 1988, and have been using various commercial online services such as CompuServe, Prodigy and GEnie since I had my first computer. A lot of things that could be described as social networks have come and gone in that time.

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