Research in Motion (RIMM) shares are getting clobbered this morning after the company yesterday issued weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for the fiscal third quarter ending in November.

While Q2 results were mixed–revenue was a tad light, as net subscriber adds came in toward the low end of guidance, while EPS was a bit ahead of estimates–the Q3 outlook disappointed investors. The company said it sees revenue for Q3 of $3.6 billion to $3.85 billion, below the Street consensus forecast of $3.92 billion. RIMM also said it sees gross margin in the quarter of 43%, down about one point sequentially. And with average selling prices sinking, and many new handsets coming from other manufacturers, there are worries that gross margins will see more pressure in coming months.

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So here’s the thing about the smartphone market: there are way too many of them.

The year 2010, JMP Securities analyst Samuel Wilson asserted in a report this morning, “should be the year of the shakeout in smartphones.” He believes most of the market share and carrier focus will consolidate around three vendors. His view is that two of the winners “have effectively already been chosen.” In that group he includes Research In Motion (RIMM), “already a leader with its strong market presence” with a focus on the enterprise, and Apple (AAPL), driven by the App Store, iTunes and a strong Web browser.

So who will take the third slot?

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To say Palm has a lot riding on the Pre smartphone is an understatement. Amid stiff competition from Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM), Palm’s very survival may hinge on the success of the device, expected to reach Sprint Nextel (S) store shelves no later than June 30.

And while it’s hard to predict demand for the Pre, preliminary analysis suggests Palm (PALM) will make a healthy profit from the units it does sell.

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During the “Launch Pad” session, five start-ups took a grilling from developers, journalists and venture capitalists, then faced a crowd vote at the Web 2.0 Expo’s version of “American Idol.”

As attendees texted their votes, moderator John Battelle, founder of Federated Media Publishing, jokingly asked: “Want to have a dance-off?”

None were necessary. The techies in attendance were starry-eyed for all things mobile, picking Nitobi’s PhoneGap, an open-source tool for building mobile apps, as the People’s Choice winner. Life-tracking site zeaLOG was a close second.

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Who knew Dick Cheney was an e-book reader?

In an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” the former vice president said that he owns an Amazon (AMZN) Kindle and used it to read James McPherson’s “Tried by War: Abraham Lincoln as Commander in Chief.” He said he also uses a BlackBerry, made by Research In Motion (RIMM), to keep up with the news now that he’s no longer in office.

Mr. Cheney follows in the footsteps of an increasingly wired crew of politicians. President Barack Obama fought to hang on to his BlackBerry before his inauguration, stoking speculation that he might have received a National Security Agency-approved device. Congressmen might as well declare themselves dinosaurs if they don’t create their own YouTube channels and Twitter constantly.

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Bold call this morning–no pun intended–from ThinkEquity analyst Mike Burton, who launched coverage of Research In Motion (RIMM) with a Sell rating and a $30 price target.

Burton writes in a research note that he thinks RIMM is a great company, but that its margins are going to get squeezed by increasing competition, and that it needs to invest more to expand. “Some of this has been recognized by the deterioration of the stock,” he writes, “but we believe there is still significant downside to current earnings estimates.”

Burton says the handset sector “has always been brutal where distribution is sometimes as important as the quality of ones product portfolio, but it is also facing a new wave of competition in its core market in QWERTY smartphones.”

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Verizon Wireless (VZ) and Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) have high hopes for the BlackBerry Storm, which they spent nearly two years developing as their big response to Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone.

But despite a marketing campaign that cost more than $100 million, the smartphone has gotten off to a bumpy start. Some early buyers have complained about technical bugs with RIM’s first touchscreen BlackBerry, although others say most new gadgets have problems that need to be ironed out.

When Verizon Communications Inc. reports its fourth-quarter results Tuesday, investors will be looking for clues on how the Storm has fared. Verizon Wireless is the exclusive U.S. carrier for the device.

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Research In Motion (RIMM) shares are getting a lift today from RBC Capital analyst Mike Abramsky, who raised his rating on the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform. He upped his price target on the stock to $75, from $45.

Abramsky’s previous cautious view was based on worries over reduced margin visibility, execution issues and recession-related growth headwinds. But he notes that the stock has dropped 28 percent since it reported fiscal Q2 results. His new three-part thesis:

• Margin visibility is improving
• Execution is recovering
• Performance exceeding lowered expectations.

Abramsky notes that the company provided an unpleasant shock for investors late last year when it guided to a sharp drop in gross margins. But he says that with mix improving and costs coming down, hardware margins should stabilize. Meanwhile, he also says the company has addressed recent execution challenges, including product delays, quality issues and shortages.

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Combing through Research in Motion’s (RIMM) 6-K filing with the SEC dated Dec. 19, which covers the company’s third fiscal quarter ended in November, Avian Securities wireless analyst Matthew Thornton writes that the company’s prospects are still intact as it moves past product delays to introducing new BlackBerrys, including the Curve 8900, also known as the “Javelin,” along with November’s lineup of Storm, Flip and Bold.

Thornton trolls through various stats from the filing, including the fact that U.S. sales, which are 58 percent of revenue, were down nine percent in Q3 from the prior quarter, though up 62 percent year over year.

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From Citigroup’s Jim Suva this morning comes the mother of all Research in Motion (RIMM) reports, 21 pages long, under the title “Outlook is Increasingly Binary.” Suva says that given uncertainty as to whether RIM’s recently announced new BlackBerrys will hit the market in time for the holidays, there is a wide swath of estimate revisions that are possible, up or down, for the company’s earnings.

Writes Suva, “Investors are unsure if Bold will hit AT&T (T) and if Storm will be at Verizon [Communications' Verizon Wireless] (VZ) in time/scale for the holidays.”

Suva provides a handy graphic, a flowchart or decision tree, with possible outcomes. There’s a 25 percent chance RIM’s new products do not reach stores for the holidays, in which case, the stock goes to $45. More likely is that the products do make it in time, consumer uptake is strong, and profit margins improve as a result.

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You have to search pretty hard to find tech stocks left out of today’s rally. But they’re out there. Here are a half-dozen companies that were not included in today historic rally, which took the Nasdaq Composite up nearly 12 percent:

• Palm (PALM): This is how ugly things have become for Palm: on a day in which RIM (RIMM) rose 15.5 percent, Apple gained 13.9 percent and Nokia (NOK) climbed 8.8 percent, Palm fell 15 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $5.22. Embarrassing.
• MOVE (MOVE): The provider of online real estate listings fell four cents, or 1.8 percent, to $2.21.
• Powerwave (PWAV): Shares of the wireless chip provider slumped 14 cents, or 4.7 percent, to $3.05.

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Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette writes this morning that Research In Motion’s (RIMM) September sell-through numbers are looking “slightly disappointing” ahead of a flurry of new product launches. He says that sales are trending flat with August.

“Our checks with carrier retail outlets throughout the United States and with third-party retailers in Western Europe indicate that sell-through of BlackBerry products through the middle of September is slightly disappointing ahead of significant new product launches,” he writes in a research note. He adds that “sell-through of the BlackBerry Bold in Western Europe has been strong in direct channels but tepid at retail outlets.”

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Marvell (MVRL) shares are down sharply again today, pressured this morning by Deutsche Bank analyst Arnab Chanda, who cut his rating on the stock to Hold from Buy. He cut his target price on the stock to $15 from $20.

“Following checks with industry contacts, we believe Marvell is not likely to see significant upside in the next six months, both due to weakness in Europe and Asia, as well as slower-than-expected product ramps” at Research In Motion (RIMM) and Seagate (STX), he wrote in a research note. “While we recognize that the company detailed some of these issues in their recent conference call, we still believe that it is prudent to move to the sidelines, given estimates could get cut” into fiscal Q4.

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What’s the killer app on a BlackBerry? … Citigroup analyst Jim Suva has a note out today detailing his experience testing the forthcoming Research in Motion (RIMM) BlackBerry–the “Bold.” He says one of his tests involved watching the comedy movie “Talladega Nights” about race car driver Ricky Bobby, which showed off the pretty screen on the device. (It is nice, I’ve seen it.)

Suva has recently made known his belief that the Bold will be an important factor for RIM in the second half of 2008.

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Back on June 26, Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha picked up coverage of Research In Motion (RIMM) with an Underperform rating, setting a $100 price target. So far, he’s looking like a genius: RIMM shares are since down 16 percent. His view was that RIMM’s EPS momentum is poised to slow over the next 12 months due to loss of market share in North America and pressures on gross margin. In particular, he asserted that the company was likely to lose share to Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T) with the introduction of the iPhone 3G. Garcha set EPS estimates of $3.56 for the Feb. 2009 fiscal year, and $4.54 for FY 2010, below the Street at $3.81 and $5.41.

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