Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu this morning launched coverage of Palm (PALM) with a Hold rating and a $16 price target. He writes in a research note that the company is well-positioned in the smart phone sector with its WebOS software, but that the valuation is expensive; he also is concerned about ongoing operating losses and a weak balance sheet. “While we believe PALM is well-positioned with its webOS software and highly integrated hardware,” he writes, “we are concerned about its balance sheet and continued operating losses over the next four quarters as we don’t model profitability until the August 2010 quarter.”

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Dell (DELL) CEO Michael Dell has done little to dispel rumors that his company is working on a mobile computing device. In fact, he all but confirmed them while traveling in Japan on March 24 when he said: “It is true that we are exploring smaller-screen devices.” What form those devices will take remains a matter of heated debate. Talk is that Dell plans a smartphone that would compete with Research In Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry, Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, and the various devices running software from Microsoft (MSFT), Nokia (NOK), or the Google-backed (GOOG) Open Handset Alliance. Prototypes of a Dell-made smartphone are being circulated in the wild and, according to Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu, got a cool reception from mobile-phone carriers including AT&T (T) and Sprint Nextel (S).

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So, uh, wasn’t Dell (DELL) supposed to be working on a cellphone?

Well, that was the scuttlebutt. But Dell has failed to show at recent mobile trade shows. Shaw Wu, an analyst at Kaufman Bros., asserts in a research note today that the company’s first attempt was basically rejected by the carriers as too, well, Dell-like.

He asserts that Dell showed a prototype to the carriers, but that they weren’t all that impressed. “From our conversation with supply chain and industry sources, it appears that it ultimately came down to lack of carrier interest and small subsidies, making it difficult for Dell to make a profit,” he writes. “In our view, the last thing Dell needs is to enter another money-losing business as it seeks to preserve its operating margins of 5-6 percent.” (Which he notes compares to Hewlett-Packard at around 11 percent, and Apple and IBM at 15 percent.)

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The Street seems to be backing away from the theory that Apple (AAPL) will introduce a cheaper version of the iPhone with a smaller screen and reduced functionality.

Yesterday, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi noted that the company does not appear to be pursuing his idea for an “iPhone Nano,” and that any new iPhones are likely to include both a browser and access to the App Store.

This morning, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu reached a similar conclusion. In a research note, he writes that he is hearing Apple is in “fairly advanced development” on three new iPhone models, but that it is not certain they will all be commercialized.

One of those models, he says, has a 2.8 inch screen–smaller than the 3.5-inch screen on the curent version. But he says that one is “less likely to see the light of day in the near term as it appears that software and thus feature sets will be the key differentiator” as opposed to screen size.

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So, just how big will be the bargains tomorrow when Apple (AAPL) unveils its pricing for Black Friday?

Bigger than last year, asserts Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu.

Wu, who just yesterday picked up coverage of the stock with a Buy rating, asserts in a research note this morning that discounts on Macs, iPods and accessories this year could be up to 15 percent, compared with discounts of 5-10 percent in previous years. He said it is “unclear” if there also will be discounts on iPhones.

Wu notes that Best Buy (BBY) and Amazon (AMZN) are already selling Apple merchandise at discounted prices.

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Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu, who until last month worked at American Technology Research, has relaunched coverage of Apple (AAPL) with a Buy rating and a $120 price target.

Wu contends that there is still room for significant growth in both the Mac and iPhone businesses, where its market share is relatively small given the size of the PC and cellphone markets. “While continued difficult global macroeconomic headwinds and their impact on technology and consumer spending concern us, we believe the Apple adoption story is still intact and believe the company is positioned to weather the storm better than most,” he writes.

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Apple (AAPL) shares are down sharply today after American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu cut his estimates on the company for both this year and next year. Wu cut his forecast for the September 2008 fiscal year to $5.29 from $5.34; for FY 2009 he goes to $6.15, from $6.35.

“While we continue to see fairly favorable unit trends in the September quarter with back-to-school, our supply chain checks indicate low visibility in the December and March quarters, which we believe will likely impact build plans,” he writes. Wu also says that he is “choosing to err on the conservative side given tough macroeconomic conditions.”

Wu also says supply chain checks find a mix shift toward low-end and mid-range Macs “as it appears that more affluent consumers may be feeling the effects of a tighter credit environment.” He says that MacBook Air sales and build plans “appear more modest after more robust levels.”

Wu maintains his Buy rating and $205 price target.

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