Has solar demand–and the slide in solar shares–finally hit bottom?

The solar analysts at Merrill Lynch think so. In a piece authored by analysts Lu Yeung, Vincent Chow, Matthew Yates and Steve Millunovich, Merrill this morning asserts that “improving second derivative trends” suggest the industry is headed for a cyclical bottom.

The Merrill analysts assert that, while there is not likely to be a recovery in demand until early 2010, Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 “will mark the shipment bottom,” with modest sequential increases in subsequent quarters. “Our research suggests that some Asian vendors may forecast flat-to-rising shipments, suggesting inventory is peaking and depletion is underway, thanks to swift production cutbacks, signs of easing in solar project financing and solar ASP declines,” they write.

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ThinkEquity’s Jonathan Hoopes this morning made an aggressive call on First Solar (FSLR), asserting that a “high-level inventory analysis” of six of the company’s major customers lead him to conclude that there maybe be substantial numbers of First Solar panels sitting in customer warehouses. And he says that they aren’t likely to move out soon, “given weakening economies, lower natural gas prices, higher interest rates and tougher underwriting requirements.”

Hoopes contends that global solar demand headwinds are unlikely to subside for at least the next few quarters. “Take-or-pay contracts are only as good as the counter-party’s willingness and ability to do either,” he notes. Hoopes points out that Q-Cells, on its Dec. 9 conference call, said it will allow a flexible delivery schedule for customers and will also offer discounted prices to help share the burden.”

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