Half of the existing solar manufacturers may not survive through the end of next year, according to the market research firm The Information Network, as reported by DigiTimes.
The piece said Information Network chief Robert Castellano believes “massive inventory buildup and huge overcapacity” are having a serious impact on solar panel manufacturers.
Shares of solar panel technology maker First Solar (FSLR) are reversing course this evening, falling to $170 after briefly going as high as $189 following a clean Q2 beat. What’s spooked people are the company’s remarks on a conference call this evening about growing uncertainty in its German market.
The Amish have the undeserved reputation of being Luddites, of people who refuse to employ new technology. It’s well known the strictest of them don’t use electricity, or automobiles, but rather farm with manual tools and ride in a horse and buggy. Yet Amish lives are anything but anti-technological.
Gabelli & Co. analyst John Segrich notes that Suntech–which has emerged as the largest Chinese solar module manufacturer–is likely to underperform as the rapid deterioration of pricing and demand in the solar market continues amid the sharp economic downturn.
Has solar demand–and the slide in solar shares–finally hit bottom?
The solar analysts at Merrill Lynch think so. In a piece authored by analysts Lu Yeung, Vincent Chow, Matthew Yates and Steve Millunovich, Merrill this morning asserts that “improving second derivative trends” suggest the industry is headed for a cyclical bottom.
Cowen analyst Robert Stone this morning cut estimates for the solar sector across the board, asserting that Street estimates for at least the first half of 2009 are too high, and there could be further downside if project credit conditions do not improve. Project financing seems to be the issue rather than the cost of individual panels.
Suntech shares are trading dramatically lower–and dragging down the rest of the already battered solar sector–on an extremely weak outlook for Q4 results.
For Q3, the company posted revenue of $594.4 million and non-GAAP profits of 36 cents a share. That beat the Street estimate of $571.7 million at the top line, but fell short of Street estimate of 42 cents at the bottom line.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) posted third-quarter revenue of $18.19 million, well short of the Street consensus of $24.98 million. The company lost four cents a share in the quarter, less than the Street estimate of a loss of 10 cents a share.
Solar stocks are off to a rousing start this morning after the U.S. Senate last night voted 93-2 to back a tax extender package that includes an 8 year extension of solar investment tax credits. The measure now moves to the House.
Solar stocks are having another rough day, one which looks all that much worse with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up well over 200 points. A number of analysts this morning wrote notes on their trips to the recent European solar conference in Valencia, Spain.
Citigroup’s solar technology analyst, Tim Arcuri, laid out the argument today for preferring shares of solar panel maker First Solar (FSLR) over those of SunPower (SPWR)–arguing that people get it wrong when they tend to think the former’s stock is more expensive than the latter’s.
Sunshine is free. Solar modules are not. But they are getting cheaper: UBS analyst Stephen Chin today revised his forecast for solar module pricing to down 20 percent from a previous estimate of down 14 percent.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) shares are sharply higher this morning after the company said second quarter results blew past previous guidance. The company now says Q2 revenue was $210 million to $214 million, above its previous forecast range of $185 million to $190 million.
The sell-off in the solar sector continues today, due largely to ongoing concerns about a proposal for a sharp reduction in solar subsidies in Spain.
As I noted yesterday, the Spanish government is considering a proposal which would put a 300 MW cap on subsidized solar installations [...]
Solar stocks are again feeling the heat from a report that Spain plans sharp reductions in subsidies for solar power. On Friday, a number of solar stocks dropped sharply after Lehman’s Vishal Shah asserted in a research note that the country was considering sharp cuts in its solar subsidy program. Today, there were further reports on the same theme.
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